Afghan presidential campaign gains momentum, striving contenders expect runoff

by Abbas Daiyar

KABUL, July 4 -- As August 20, the date set for Afghan presidential election, is getting nearer, election campaign in Afghanistan is gaining momentum. Afghans are going to vote for the second presidential election in the post-Taliban country.

Campaigns in Full Bloom

In capital Kabul, the electoral atmosphere is in full bloom with the presidential contenders actively campaigning by corner meetings, public gatherings, TV-debates and media statements.

In the first presidential polls of 2004, there were 18 candidates while there are 41 contestants in 2009 running for the office of presidency.

However, polls and apparent atmosphere, according to media reports, show incumbent President Hamid Karzai with lead followed by two other prominent candidates Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, a former Foreign Minister, and ex-Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai.

In 2004, candidates had 40 days for campaign, while now they have 60 days until August 17, to campaign.

Though, the popularity of sitting President Karzai has dropped down in comparison to previous election, he is still on lead in the race.

Karzai Gets Support of Ethnic Figures

¡¡ In a sign of support, around 70,000 people gathered in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif on Friday vowed to support the incumbent Karzai in the coming presidential race.

Organized by the People's Unity Party of Afghanistan headed by ethnic Hazara leader Hajji Mohammad Mohaqiq and National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan led by ethnic Uzbek strongman Abdul Rashid Dustam, the speakers in the rally urged people to vote for Karzai.

Early last week such gathering was held in the historic Ghazi Sport Stadium of Kabul--where Taliban used to persecute people--approximately 20,000 Afghans rallied in favor of incumbent President Karzai.

The Karzai camp got weight early last month after some of his presumed strong competitors, like influential Governor of Nangarhar Gul Agha Sherzai and former Finance Minister Mr. Ahady, were not nominated for the race and apparently favored Karzai's bid.

Hazara and Uzbek that make the third and fourth largest ethnic groups of Afghanistan after Pashtun and Tajik--joined the Karzai camp.

Abdullah and Ghani, Top Rivals

On the other hand, the second prominent candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah of former Northern Alliance enjoys backing of some influential figures including the Governor of northern Balkh province Atta Muhammad Noor.

Moreover, Hizb Harkat-e-Islami, or Islamic Movement Party headed by former Herat governor Mohammad Hussain Anwari has announced its backing to Abdullah in the race.

National Unity Council of Afghanistan, an umbrella of a handful opposition groups also joined hand to back Abdullah against Karzaion voting day.

There have been several public gatherings in favor of the third strongest contester Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai, besides many tribal leaders announcing support.

Other influential candidates include Mir Wais Yasini and Dr. Ramzan Bashardost a former Planning Minister and a Saudi Arab based businessman Syed Karim Jalal contesting with different mottos.

Dr. Abdullah talks of changing the system from Presidential to Parliamentary and decentralization of power while Ashraf Ghani is attracting voters through his comprehensive 10-years Framework for Afghanistan targeting one million jobs and full security across the country.

Possibility of Alliance between the Rivals

Apparently Karzai is in lead following Dr. Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai respectively.

There were rumors of alliance between the top rivals of incumbent President Karzai, but in a press release last week, Ashraf Ghani denied chances of withdrawal.

The alliance between Dr. Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, as some analysts speculate, seems less likely due to their diverse policies as Abdullah emphasizes on parliamentary system while Ashraf Ghani favors Presidential one.

Runoff expected

In fact, the top rivals of President Karzai believe the elections of August 20 will go for a runoff voting.

Article 18 of the Electoral Law says "If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the valid votes cast, a runoff election shall be held between the two most voted candidates within two weeks following the announcement of election results. The candidate who receives more valid votes in the runoff election shall be declared elected."

Holding Afghanistan's coming election costs 223 million U.S. dollars, contributed by the international community while no country has pledged more fund for possible run-off polls.

However, impossibility of making alliance between the top rivals of President Karzai and lack of financial assistance have made run-off difficult.