Palestinian-Israeli status quo to continue

INTERNATIONAL NAIVETE?

Sharkansky is of the opinion that despite the years of experience in dealing with the Middle East, the Europeans and more so the Americans are "innocent." They are well intentioned in trying to persuade and cajole the parties back to the negotiating table, but that does not mean the potential peace partners want to walk the walk, he contends.

"This insistence by well-meaning innocents does more harm than good," said Sharkansky.

Here Dajani agrees to disagree with the Israeli professor. Rather than wanting to apportion any element of blame on the United States and its Quartet partners, he prefers to point the finger in the direction of both the Palestinians and the Israelis.

"I don't know for how long they will remain bogged down with this attitude," said Dajani.

He reckons the Palestinians should enter direct talks immediately and drop all preconditions, otherwise the process will never commence. Once at the table they can set out all their demands, he said. As to the Israelis, Dajani feels they should stop thinking there is no need to negotiate and no need to give up land.

Both analysts fear the status quo is most likely here to stay for some time, but they differ on whether that means an immediate return to violence.

Some Palestinian leaders have spoken of their fears that a failed peace process will lead to a return to "resistance" on the part of the Palestinian street. Resistance is a byword for armed conflict of one kind or another.

While he says it is impossible to predict what might happen, Sharkansky does not think the Palestinian doom and gloom scenario will necessarily come to fruition.

"I would expect a continuation of the simmering with waves of violence," he said.

However, Dajani warns that a lack of movement in the peace process is a recipe for bloodshed.

"The status quo favors the radicals and extremists and after a while the people will feel frustrated and despair and as a result there may be some kind of violent outbreak," he said.