Palestinian options may risky if peace talks fail

by Osama Radi, Emad Drimly

Israel and the Palestinians stand together at a crossroads to decide on achieving progress in the stalled Middle East peace process, while disputes over the issue of settlement freeze may lead to a complete collapse of the direct talks started in Washington four weeks ago.

Amid such a situation, and after deciding to suspend the direct peace talks with Israel on Saturday, the Palestinian leadership began to look for political alternatives to move forwards, while Palestinian observers said looking for alternatives would include risks.

The Palestinians said Saturday that they suspended the U.S- sponsored direct peace negotiations with Israel after the Israeli government had decided not to extend a 10-month moratorium to freeze settlement construction in the Palestinian territories, which expired on Sept. 26.

Despite the ongoing U.S. contacts with Israel and the Palestinians, in a bid to find a middle-ground compromise, the Palestinians said that the U.S. efforts would not succeed. However, a Palestinian source said the Palestinians haven't decided yet on when the talks will resume.

The source said the Palestinian leadership kept the door open for the U.S. efforts until Friday, adding that it nominated a committee to study the possible options, mainly applying to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and finalize the internal Palestinian reconciliation.

COMMITTEE FORMED TO DRAFT OPTIONS

The Palestinian committee, according to the source, would prepare its recommendation and hand it to Palestinian National Authority (PNA) President Mahmoud Abbas, who would present it to the Arab League (AL) following up committee which is scheduled to convene in the Libyan city of Sirte this weekend.

Palestinian analysts and observers said they believed the available options for the Palestinian leadership "are narrow and difficult," despite the weakness of the Palestinian internal situation as well as the current Arab and international positions.

According to analysts, among these options is Abbas' resignation and the dismantle of the Palestinian National Authority.

Meanwhile, officials close to Abbas voiced disappointment and pessimism towards Abbas' sudden resignation and the dismantle of the PNA. They are also not satisfied with the consequences of the peace talks, mainly the collapse of the PNA, which was established according to a historic peace agreement signed with Israel in 1993 as a transitional stage to end up with the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

They also said that Abbas had revealed to his aids after he returned from New York last week that he was not optimistic and he might go for hard decisive and fatal decisions. The resignation of Abbas and the collapse of the PNA may bring a heavy wave of violence.

ABBAS WON'T RESIGN, PNA WON'T COLLAPSE

Allam Jarrar, a West Bank-based political analyst, however, said that Abbas would not leave office, which "means an abandon of responsibilities and escaping instead of looking for other serious political options that redeem the Palestinians from their pain.

"Such an action would have destructive consequences on the Palestinians because it would create a complete constitutional vacuum that would never end amid the current Palestinian internal rifts and the disputes between Fatah party and Islamic Hamas movement," Jarrar told Xinhua.

However, Mekhemer Abu Se'da, a political science professor of the Gaza-based Al-Azhar University said that Abbas' personal decision won't be clear until he gains the support of the AL, which would convene in Libya this weekend."

"It is probable that in this stage, the AL committee would support the Palestinian decision of halting the talks with Israel until Israel freezes settlement, but the U.S. would prefer to get back to the proximity talks which were stopped in late August and was rejected by Israel," he said.

Abu Se'da said he expected that the standstill in the peace process would remain for a long time due to Israel's stance, adding that the PNA may take some diplomatic moves. "Applying to the UN Security Council for the recognition of a Palestinian state might be one of these moves."

APPLYING TO UNSC A MAJOR OPTION

Palestinian officials have repeatedly threatened to apply to the United Nations Security Council to intervene in the settlement issue and draw the borders of their state on the territories occupied by Israel in 1967 instead of keeping the peace talks with Israel stalled.

Khalil Shahin, another West Bank-based political analyst, said that heading to the security council needs a different strategic plan.

"Apparently the Palestinian leadership is not ready yet for this plan after it suspended the talks with Israel and didn't decide to leave it," he added.

Hana Amira, a Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) official, said that the most significant option is to look for support that the Palestinians need in order to head to the security council to call for an international stance that obliges Israel to halt settlement activities and implement the international law.

Senior Hamas leader Sallah al-Bardaweel said that the PNA's stance "reinforces the intention towards achieving the reconciliation." He called on Fatah and Abbas "to stop completely the absurd negotiations and improve the internal Palestinian situation."